For those looking to buy and sell real estate while sheltering in place, the East Bay real estate market remains active and is continuing to improve.

 

*Please note that charts should be viewed on a desktop, not a mobile device, to display correctly.

 

The number of homes that sold in May 2020 fell 53% compared to one year ago (driven by lack of inventory - see below). However, price remained stable, increasing 3%. These two metrics show that there is still demand for homes and buyers are still interested in purchasing. However, competition is lower than before, with homes selling closer to asking at 4.6% above list price (down significantly from 12.1% in April). Furthermore, properties moved quickly, selling in an average of just 18 days.

 

 

If we look at sold properties by the date they went into contract and compiled them by the weeks before the Shelter in Place (SIP) order went into effect, you’ll find similar trends: sales are down significantly but prices are up. You’ll also see that part of the reason prices are higher is that the bottom end of the market ($500K and below) is making up a lower share of sales; this could be because fewer of these homes are being listed or the demand for those homes has declined, so they are not selling.

 

 

The number of homes available for sale bottomed out at the end of March, then when real estate was deemed an “essential business,” inventory started to increase. It continued to increase through Monday, June 8, and is currently 15% below last year’s levels. The number of homes under contract but not yet closed is following suit: only 13% below last year. This shows that more sellers are putting their homes on the market, and more buyers have the confidence to purchase - and thereby absorb - the inventory.

 

Because of real estate’s new Clear Cooperation Policy, many homes are now being “pre-listed” on the MLS as “coming soon.” When we add these coming soons to the number of active listings, inventory is equal to last year’s levels.

 

 

The data referenced above lags the current market: for example, homes that closed in May most likely ratified in April and were marketed to buyers in March. However, by aggregating internal Red Oak data for properties that have not yet closed, we can see what the market as a whole might expect in the near future.

 

Red Oak data suggests that prices will be flat compared to last year, with homes continuing to sell above list. We are seeing an average of 3 offers per Red Oak list- or sell-side transaction. 

 

 

All told, real estate market data suggests that sellers are listing more homes, and those homes are selling. Buyer competition is lower, but demand is strong enough to keep prices increasing.

 

If you have any questions about this data or would like a custom analysis, contact us.