The Inner East Bay* real estate market fell precipitously when shelter-in-place went into effect in March 2020, but it has continuously improved since then. Many sellers are looking to move out of the region, but many buyers are looking to stay in the Bay Area and obtain more space as COVID continues to affect our daily lives.

 

Looking at the market through August, key metrics match - or even exceed - 2019 data. That said, there has been some wavering due to the devastating smoke and fires that have ravaged the region since August 16.

 

The number of homes sold in August 2020 reflected a 4% increase over the previous month. However, the pace of monthly increases has slowed (June to July was a 26% increase).

 

 

With a median price of $880K, prices remained strong, decreasing slightly versus the previous month (monthly fluctuations are common), but increasing by 14% over the year prior. Prices tend to decline in August (that's what happened in 2019).

 

 

Buyers competed for limited inventory as homes sold an average of 8.7% over their list price. Homes have been selling increasingly over asking for the past 3 months but were still below last year’s levels.

 

 

And further reflecting buyer demand, homes stayed on the market for an average of just 20 days.

 

 

Sold data reflects activity for homes that were listed around June. But the question remains: how does the market look for the next few months? We can make some projections by looking at a separate data set containing listings that are active, “coming soon” or under contract.

 

The number of new listings written each week fell for 2 weeks but ticked up through 9/14. It's unclear whether this variation was due to the pause that usually comes with the Labor Day weekend. The number of properties that are “coming soon” has (mostly) been declining since the fires started on 8/16; is this a sign that sellers might be tentative to list during these uncertain times?

 

 

Looking at the number of new contracts written each week, the number increased compared to the previous week and were up 57% vs. last year (there is usually a slowdown right after Labor Day as new listings flood the market and buyers take more time to review their options).

 

 

Looking at the total number of actives and pendings on the market, the number of active listings has flattened over the past several weeks but pendings have continued to increase and are 42% higher than last year.

 

 

As the largest independent brokerage in the East Bay, we can also aggregate Red Oak transactions to get a sense of how the market will look in the month to come. Looking at transactions ratified through 9/12, prices are continuing to increase and homes are selling further over asking (averaging 13%) with a higher number of offers (averaging 4.2).

 

 

Based upon these analyses, we expect the Inner East Bay market to grow as buyers continue to absorb inventory at a record clip. To see how you can make the most of this market, contact us with questions.

 

* Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, El Sobrante, Kensington, Oakland, Piedmont, Pinole, Richmond, San Leandro and San Pablo.