Fall is possibly the most magical season in the Inner East Bay (after the heatwaves, of course). The scent in the air changes, the kids are back in school... and the real estate market roars back to life.
New listings flood the market in the fall, and this year was no exception: in the one week after Labor Day, the number of new listings increased by more than 150%. This creates an unusual dynamic where, suddenly, buyers have many more properties to choose from. And with higher supply - and relatively unchanged demand - key metrics can change, and quickly.
As a result, homes listed in September are more likely to cancel than any other time of the year. We are seeing that trend reveal itself now, and it should likely continue through October and November. It may be particularly exacerbated this year since the Fed cut interest rates at the beginning of the month, but mortgage rates have changed little. Buyers may be waiting for further declines.
Given these factors, sellers and buyers face unique opportunities - and challenges - through the end of the year.
- In many cases, sellers are facing higher levels of competition, so it is more important than ever for a home to look great and feel move-in ready for buyers. A critical marketing tool is the list price: It must be attractive to buyers, too. (As they say, there are no bad properties, only bad prices.)
- Buyers have an increasing amount of power in the real estate transaction, with a high level of inventory to choose from. However, not all homes are made equal, and different buyers’ attention can cluster around the most attractive homes, in the most attractive areas, with the most attractive list prices. Given these dynamics, a buyer should work with their agent to find opportunities in this complex market. Opportunities are still out there!
Want more information? Red Oak’s 75+ page presentation on the current state of the market is very informative. It focuses on the Inner East Bay but includes data throughout the Bay Area. If you’d like a copy, please reach out.
