Now that the first quarter of 2021 has come to a close, we wanted to look back and see how key components of the East Bay real estate market performed, and determine what the future might hold for buyers and sellers.

 

The market surged in Q1:

 

• Spring came early this year, with the number of sales growing each month - and 67% in March alone. This drove up the number of sales for the quarter by 57% over last year, the largest increase since 2009. This is partially due to the fact that sales are typically low at the beginning of each year, and they were particularly low in 2020 due to a 30% decrease in supply before shelter in place, and the sudden drop in activity after the order began.

• Median sale price for single family homes grew significantly by 22%, the largest increase since 2010. Again, part of this is driven by the fact that prices are typically lower in the first quarter of the year due to slightly poorer inventory being available during that time period. Buyers are hungry for properties in 2021, and although inventory is 15%-20% higher than last year, it’s still not enough to sate their demand.

• Homes are selling an average of 13.2% over list price, 4.9 percentage points higher than last year. Additionally, homes are on the market for an average of 20 days, 25% lower than last year. Both of these changes are due to the imbalance caused by high demand and insufficient supply.

 

Provided by Red Oak Realty

 

Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, El Sobrante, Emeryville, Hercules, Kensington, Oakland, Piedmont, Pinole, Richmond, San Leandro and San Pablo. Data is sourced from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

 

A few interesting points:

 

• Buyers are particularly interested in more space. This is why single family homes are appreciating at faster rates than condos (6% for condos in Q1) and homes with the word “yard” in their description are in greater demand than those without (24% with, 18% without).

• Homes are selling faster than before with 32% selling within 1 week on market. This is the highest level ever recorded in Q1.

• Single family homes sold in the $1M-$2M range are in the greatest demand. For example, homes $1.5M-$2M are selling an average of 25.7% over asking in just 17 days. However, properties listed in this price range are more likely to cancel than any other.

• The market is strong in most regions of the Inner East Bay, although El Cerrito through North Oakland is in particular demand. El Cerrito homes sold most over asking at an average of 26% while Richmond is the only city that decreased in sales (-2%). Piedmont prices fell, but that was mainly due to a high number last year and the mix of homes that sold this year - median price still held strong at $2,475,000.

 

Provided by Red Oak Realty

 

Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, El Sobrante, Emeryville, Hercules, Kensington, Oakland, Piedmont, Pinole, Richmond, San Leandro and San Pablo. Data is sourced from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

 

To put this in context with the Bay Area as a whole:

 

• The largest growth in the number of sales is clustered around the Peninsula and Bay, particularly along the 101 corridor. The largest growth in sales price is clustered around outlying areas, particularly in the outer East Bay.

• San Francisco sales grew an impressive 86%, although median price fell an average of 2%.

• Although the prices for Berkeley single family homes and condos are high at a median of $1,525,000, that is low compared to other cities like Mill Valley ($1,657,500) and San Carlos ($1,975,000).

• In total, the Inner East Bay has appreciated more since 2010 than any other Bay Area region (+184%).

 

Provided by Red Oak Realty

 

Data is sourced from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

 

The number of available homes appears to be increasing, which leads us to believe that we are heading towards a typical “spring market.” This should help satiate some of the buyer demand and take some of the intensity out of the market. And while we expect prices to continue to rise and key metrics to remain strong, there may be a slowdown in summer as people take their “vaccine vacations.”

 

Red Oak offers a 70+ page report summarizing market activity. If you would like a copy, or a custom analysis for your neighborhood, please reach out to your Red Oak agent or contact us directly.